The USDCHF continues to struggle with upside momentum, as the pair remains capped below the 0.8000 level, a key ceiling that has held since June 30. This week, buyers once again tested the swing area between 0.7986 and 0.7994, but the rally stalled just shy of the 38.2% retracement, with Tuesday’s high peaking at 0.79935.
The failure to break through that resistance has turned the focus lower. The pair is now trading back and forth around the 100-hour moving average at 0.79629, with the 200-hour MA at 0.79458 serving as the next key downside target. A move below both moving averages would tilt the short-term bias back to the downside (more bearish). The price has been trading above and below those MAs his week (with more time above them). Move below and the low from yesterday (and July 4 too) at 0.7919 would be targeted.
On the flip side, if buyers can hold support above the moving averages, the focus will return to the familiar resistance band at 0.7986–0.7994. That area remains the battle zone for control, with a firm break above needed to shift the technical outlook more convincingly bullish.
PS. It also needs to get above the 0.8000 level and the 38.2% retracement at 0.8002 to show the buyers mean business. Absent that, and they are not winning
