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European markets opened little changed today: With the US markets closed for Martin Luther King Day, and Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President later today (17:00 GMT), market activity is expected to remain muted. US futures are similarly calm, with S&P 500 futures up just 0.1%. China Leadership Shift at the PBOC A Reuters
#MonetaryPolicy #GlobalMarkets As HUBFX’s Chief Economist, I am delving into the latest financial trends, central bank strategies, and global economic developments. This week, key insights span Japan’s cautious monetary stance, China’s pension expansion, and Australia’s surprisingly robust labor market data. Let’s dive into the implications and potential market movements. Bank of Japan’s Likely Standstill
Insights on US Mortgage Data, GBP/USD Trends, and Key Economic Updates US MBA Mortgage Applications: Surging Activity Amidst Mixed Trends Date: November 22, 2024Reported: +6.3% (prior +1.7%) The US MBA Mortgage Applications index saw a significant surge of 6.3%, driven by a sharp rise in purchase activity. This uptick underscores stronger homebuyer interest,
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Navigating Key Levels and Trends 1. Market Overview: A Week of Rangebound Movement The USD/JPY pair has exhibited a rangebound trading pattern throughout the past week. Despite sporadic late-day strength in the USD, these gains were largely erased, leaving the pair oscillating around critical levels. 2. Daily Chart Analysis: Consolidation Around
Overview Today’s market movements reflect a complex interplay of political developments, economic indicators, and sector performance. Notably, the UK financial landscape is under scrutiny following the Labour Party’s first budget in 15 years, leading to significant shifts in bond yields and currency valuations. UK Economic Developments A spokesperson for Labour leader Keir Starmer commented on
HUBFX Market Report: October 9, 2024 – Trade Ideas and Market Insights Good morning, afternoon, and evening to all our global traders! Today’s economic calendar is packed with Federal Reserve speeches, crude oil updates, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Market participants are keeping a close eye on the USDJPY, EURGBP, and crude oil as critical technical
December 30, 2024 at 02:13PM The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up and stalled at
December 26, 2024 at 03:26PM While UK traders celebrate Boxing Day, the GBP/USD is under pressure, falling to new session lows and extending its decline further away from the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average. The pair opened the post-Christmas trading day just below the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.25365, and remained below it during the Asian Pacific session. As the day progressed into
December 24, 2024 at 09:35AM For the longest of time now, the pair has been caught within a 1,000 pips range over the last eight years. And that’s just the extremes in certain years. Most of the time, the pair has nestled within a much tighter range during this period. But with the over 4% decline this year, there is a chance for
December 23, 2024 at 11:30PM UBS has reiterated its recommendation for investors to capitalize on further dollar strength by diversifying into other currencies. Despite recent gains in the US dollar, driven by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve and US government policy, the bank maintains that the dollar remains overvalued. While UBS does not anticipate a sharp decline in the greenback in the near
December 23, 2024 at 03:37PM The GBP/USD rallied on Friday after sharp declines on Thursday, driven by the BOE’s dovish rate decision, where three members voted for a rate cut. The downward move pushed the pair below the November low of 1.24865, reaching 1.24739—the lowest level since May. However, momentum stalled, and the pair rebounded on Friday, supported by weaker-than-expected US PCE data.
December 20, 2024 at 10:06AM Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and giving the USD a tailwind. The data is what really matters now
March 18, 2025 at 11:14PM Deutsche Bank has revised down its first-quarter U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.5% (annualized), a 1 percentage point cut from its previous estimate, citing weaker-than-expected consumer spending and a greater drag from net exports. The downgrade also has broader implications for 2025, with the bank now projecting inflation-adjusted GDP growth
March 18, 2025 at 11:08PM Reuters Tankan survey for March 2025 – Manufacturers’ sentiment drops to -1 in March from +3 in February – Non-manufacturers’ index declines to +25 from +30 – Outlook improves slightly for June, with manufacturers seen at +4 and non-manufacturers at +28 Business confidence among Japanese manufacturers turned negative for the
March 18, 2025 at 10:47PM This via Reuters, citing ” a White House official said, clarifying comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent which suggested countries could negotiate before the U.S. government begins collecting new import duties” “The intent is to enact tariffs on April 2,” “Unless the tariff and non-tariff barriers are equalized, or the
March 18, 2025 at 10:28PM A UBS note highlights that liquidity in S&P 500 futures has dwindled to levels rarely seen since 2020, touching this threshold only four times in the past four years—most often in mid-summer. A similar trend is playing out in single stocks, exacerbating the magnitude of recent market moves. This aligns
March 18, 2025 at 10:12PM A SpaceX capsule carrying Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams has splashdowned off the Florida coast. The two were stranded on the International Space Station due to a Boeing Starliner fault. Some welcome news! SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) is an American aerospace company founded by Elon Musk in 2002. It
March 18, 2025 at 09:59PM Rachel Reeves is the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Financial Times reports that she will “squeeze public spending further in Spring Statement”. Reeves is looking for further cuts to fill a deficit in the public finances will trim proposed budgets for Whitehall departments later in the parliament The FT
March 18, 2025 at 09:53PM New Zealand Q4 current account deficit data, NZD/USD not showing much response. Quarterly deficit was NZ$7.037 bn deficit of NZ$10.839 billion in the previous quarter Stats NZ say the deficit is narrower than the previous quarter due to an increase in the value of services exports (up $688 million) and
March 18, 2025 at 09:36PM Noting this bullish news for BTC overnight … and also that the price fell a little. Strategy plans to sell $500 million of dollar-denominated perpetual preferred stock. The firm says it intends to use proceeds for general corporate purposes acquisition of Bitcoin for working capital Crypto media carry more info
March 18, 2025 at 09:33PM EMSC info: Magnitude 5.6 Region COQUIMBO, CHILE Depth 76 km 288 km WNW of San Juan, Argentina 33 km ESE of Coquimbo, Chile As noted in the sub-heading, Chile is the world’s largest producer and exporter of copper. I haven’t info on any mining/precessing/export implications as yet. This article was
March 18, 2025 at 08:43PM Via oilprice.com: Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.9mn barrels Distillates -0.3 mn bbls Gasoline -2.4 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning
March 18, 2025 at 08:39PM On Tuesday the German parliament approved a significant borrowing increase to fund infrastructure and security spending while easing borrowing restrictions. Germany is expected to spend €900 billion – €1 trillion over the next ten years, over 20% of GDP. Fitch projects the fiscal deficit to grow to 4-4.5% of GDP
March 18, 2025 at 08:39PM Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 08:22PM The US stock indices all traded negative for the entire trading day. Trump and Putin call did not help. Nor did the Nvidia GTC conference. The market is having trouble getting off its back. The wall of worry includes tariffs and the Fed decision tomorrow. What will the Fed say
March 18, 2025 at 08:18PM Westpac-McDermott Miller New Zealand consumer confidence index fell to 89.2 in Q1 2025 from 97.5 in Q4 last year global trade war risks and ongoing cost of living pressures cited as impacting Westpac said poor results are likely for “a few more months at least” For this index, a reading
March 18, 2025 at 07:46PM Zelensky says he hopes to to speak to Trump to receive more details of Putin call Ukraine would support a proposal to stop strikes on energy infrastructure Kyiv’s partners would not agree to stop military aid, hopes it will continue Talks about Ukraine without Ukraine will not bring about results
March 18, 2025 at 06:31PM The EURUSD price action today saw a rise to the high of a swing area between 1.0936 and 1.0954. Sellers leaned against the area. The subsequent move to the downside stalled ahead of its rising 100-hour moving average currently at 1.0888 (see blue line on the hourly chart below). A
March 18, 2025 at 06:30PM I don’t think any of this is a big surprise but Ontario Premier Doug Ford met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday and today he offered up more of what he heard. “I can tell you what they want. They are going to put a global tariff on
March 18, 2025 at 05:35PM Fresh Ukraine talks to start ‘immediately’ in Middle East Putin agreed to pause strikes on Ukraine energy targets for 30 days The Russian headlines sounded like Putin endorsed the idea of a pause on hitting energy infrastructure, though I’d imagine the Ukraine will have to be a party to that
March 18, 2025 at 05:29PM Now this is the kind of diplomacy I can get behind. The Russian readout of the call today between Trump and Putin said the Russian President suggested a organizing hockey games between the USA and Russia to take place in the United States. Trump backed the idea. We can finally
March 18, 2025 at 05:22PM Agree of swap of 175 POWs on each side Trump and Putin agreed to stay in contact Discussed Middle East, energy Putin reaffirmed commitment to peaceful resolution of conflict Russia and US to set up expert groups on Ukrainian settlement Russia to hand over 23 gravely injured Ukrainian servicement This
March 18, 2025 at 05:02PM High yield 4.632% WI level at the time of the auction 4.646% Tail -1.4 basis points vs 6-month average of 1.3 bps Bid to cover 2.78X vs 6-month average of 2.52X Other details: Directs 22.35% vs 6-month average of 16.9% Indirects 68.84% vs 6-month average of 66.2% Dealers 8.81% vs
March 18, 2025 at 04:54PM The price of crude oil is trading lower after a hint of peace from the Trump/Putin talks today. Looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved from a high of $68.46 today to a new low of $66.59 currently. The price has also broken back below its 100-hour moving
March 18, 2025 at 04:43PM The US treasury will auction off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour. The success or failure of the auction will be compared to the six-month averages of the major components: Tail 1.3 bps Bid to cover 2.52X Directs (a measure of domestic demand) 16.9%
March 18, 2025 at 04:39PM The major European indices are closing the day higher after Germany passed their fiscal reform measures: German DAX, +1.03% France’s CAC, +0.5% UK’s FTSE 100, +0.29% Spain’s Ibex, +1.58% Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.31%. The German Bundestag has passed CDU/CSU’s fiscal reform, with 513 votes in favor and 207 against. The
March 18, 2025 at 04:31PM Putin Envoy Dmitriev is on the wires saying: Under Pres. Putin and Pres. Trump, the world has become a much safer place today According to MSNBC, the call between Russia’s Putin and US Pres. Trump is now over after about 1 1/2 hours. US stocks have seen a modest bounce.
March 18, 2025 at 04:12PM Gold continues its bullish momentum, surging $30.60 (1.02%) to $3,031.76, marking a new all-time high. The precious metal is now up 15.57% in 2025, following a 27.2% rally in 2024. With record highs being set, traders must ask: “What could derail this rally, even in the short term?” Until a
March 18, 2025 at 03:51PM The markets remain on edge as Trump/Putin call continues. At stake is: No ceasefire A temporary 30-day ceasefire Something more or less. Russia is expected to outline conditions, including a halt to Western weapon shipments to Ukraine. They also would not want to see Ukraine a part of NATO. Trump
March 18, 2025 at 03:28PM Last week, the NZDUSD found support twice at its 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, giving buyers the confidence to push higher. Yesterday, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average at 0.57464, accelerating the upside move. This breakout cleared key resistance levels, including the February 21 high at
: December 12, 2024#MonetaryPolicy #GlobalMarkets As HUBFX’s Chief Economist, I am delving into the latest financial trends, central bank strategies, and global economic developments. This week, key insights span Japan’s cautious monetary stance, China’s pension expansion, and Australia’s surprisingly robust labor market data. Let’s dive into the implications and potential market movements.
Bank of Japan’s Likely Standstill
US MBA Mortgage Applications: Surging Activity Amidst Mixed Trends 
Date: November 22, 2024Reported: +6.3% (prior +1.7%) The US MBA Mortgage Applications index saw a significant surge of 6.3%, driven by a sharp rise in purchase activity. This uptick underscores stronger homebuyer interest,
The USD/JPY pair has exhibited a rangebound trading pattern throughout the past week. Despite sporadic late-day strength in the USD, these gains were largely erased, leaving the pair oscillating around critical levels. 2. Daily Chart Analysis: Consolidation Around
December 30, 2024 at 02:13PM The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up and stalled at
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