The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% in June but signalled further hikes remain possible, with Westpac forecasting a move at the August meeting if inflation stays elevated. The RBA’s deliberate insertion of explicit hike language into its post-meeting statement removes any residual market comfort that the tightening cycle has peaked. Rate-sensitive sectors, particularly
The broader stock indices did not fare well today with the NASDAQ index the worst performer falling by -1.15%. The S&P index fell by -0.57% but the Dow industrial average gained 0.64%. The Dow 30 gainers were help by J.P. Morgan +3.72%, Visa +2.89%, Home Depot, +2.20% 3M +2.17% American Express, +1.65% P&G, +1.39% The
Data from New Zealand, Japan and Australia due today. None of this is likely to move around financial markets too much upn release. Instead, to day will be spent waiting on the FOMC and specualting about the nuanaces around the expected on hold decision
Major U.S. stock indices have pushed to fresh session lows as the clock ticks toward the 4:00 PM ET close. The Nasdaq Index has fallen to a new intraday low of 26,404.16, bringing it closer to a key technical support zone. The latest dip has taken the index to within striking distance of its 100-hour
Crude oil futures are settling at $76.05 – its lowest close since March 3. The futures settled down $4.70 or -5.82%. Technically, the settled price is now within $1.57 of it 200 day moving average the price is not traded below that level since February 17 when the moving average was near $62.10. On the
There is a something of a tradition at the Federal Reserve of rookie Chairmen causing themselves problems early in their terms, or in their first press conferences. It’s a rare event that begs for a live feed and strong preparation. On Wednesday, the market isn’t sure what to expect and that’s why the US dollar
High yield 4.927% WI level at the time of the auction 4.937% Tail -1.0 basis points versus average of -0.1 basis points Bid to cover 2.75X versus average of 2.65X Directs (domestic demand) 19.9% versus average of 24.3% Indirects (international demand) 73.2% versus average of 64.9% Dealers 8.5% versus average of 10.8% Auction Grade A-
The USD is moving lower helped by lower oil, and lower rates. Crude oil is trading down around five dollars and $75.82, and getting closer to its next key target at the rising 200 day moving average at $73.47 The 10 year yield is now down -4.4 basis points at 4.423% Looking at some of
The NASDAQ surged higher on Monday following the weekend developments, gapping above both its 200-hour moving average (26,284.98) and 100-hour moving average (26,383.84). That move shifted the near-term technical bias firmly back in favor of the buyers. For the sellers to regain control, they would need to push the index back below those key moving
WTI crude is now down more than 5% to $76.01 on a report that the US will allow Iran to immediately sell oil when the deal is signed. There was some speculation it would be phased or slow walked along with Iran opening the Strait. Obviously, there was pressure on Trump to do a deal
The price of crude oil continues to slide, with WTI now trading around the $77 level, down roughly $3.70, or 4.6%, on the day. The decline extends a sharp three-day selloff that has seen prices fall 5.9%, 2.5%, and now another 4.6%, as traders continue to unwind the geopolitical risk premium that had been built
The bears are making something of a stand. US stock markets opened higher but have reversed and now the Nasdaq is lower by 0.5%. It’s a mixed bag in terms of names and memes as Western Digital remains up 6.5% (though it was up 10%) and Intel falls 5.7%. The latter name is carving out
📈 Sector Overview The U.S. stock market showcases a mixed picture today, primarily driven by sharp declines in the technology sector, particularly in semiconductors, while financial sectors and consumer cyclical stocks exhibit strength. 🔻 Technology & Semiconductors: A challenging day with industry leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) falling by 1.78%. Other major players such as AMD
The RBA left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that both headline and underlying inflation remain above target. Policymakers also highlighted elevated uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly the impact that ongoing Middle East tensions could have on global energy prices. While the statement retained a cautious tone, some of the more hawkish language was softened.
The USDCAD began the new trading day near its session low at 1.3985, just above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 2025 high to the January 2026 low at 1.39839. Importantly for buyers, that low remained comfortably above the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.39726 and well above a key swing area
Oil is on my radar.1. This is starting to look like capitulation. WTI is down another $3.13 to $77.26 today and is down dramatically from $91.62 last Thursday. The driver is obviously the peace in Hormuz and Trump repeatedly saying the Strait will be opened this week. That’s a positive timeline and a reason to
Comments from Trump: Will release text of Iran agreement in a formal setting MOU states clearly Iran will not have a nuclear weapon Will have a news conference on the Iran deal Will go over Iran MOU with media in a couple days Agreement is about one thing: Iran will never have a nuclear weapon
Prior was +1.9% Export prices vs +1.2% expected Prior export prices +3.3% The US dollar is relatively flat today ahead of the data as we wait for Wednesday’s FOMC decision. For background, the US Import and Export Price Indexes, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, track what Americans pay for foreign goods and
The USD is little changed with all the major currencies within 0.12% of the closing level from yesterday. The high to low trading ranges are also confined. EURUSD: 38 pips USDJPY: 30 pips GBPUSD: 40 pips USDCHF: 18 pips USDCAD: 33 pips AUDUSD: 35 pips NZDUSD: 40 pips Looking at the 3 major currency pairs
Iranian oil tankers successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the US lifted its naval blockade, marking one of the clearest signs yet that Friday’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries is beginning to take effect. According to Iranian state-linked outlet ISNA, citing Deputy Foreign Minister officials, Iran confirmed that the US
Iran deal should be successful Iran deal is a fair, good deal Iran deal goes to a second stage We’re not investing any money in Iran Iran will never have a nuclear weapon All hell will break out in Iran if Iran tries to get a nuclear weapon We’re dealing with rational people in Iran
The framework agreement for the memorandum of understanding this week can be said to be the “easy part”. And that says a lot about how the next phase of talks is going to proceed, considering the circumstances. That being nuclear discussions between the two sides. And Iran is quick to outline what the key argument
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The surprising US-Iran breakthrough last Thursday triggered a selloff in crude oil as traders started to unwind the hedges and positioned for lower prices on expectations of resumption of normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming months. As mentioned last week, the downside was more likely as the upside was
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After the surprising US-Iran breakthrough on Thursday, gold has erased all last week’s losses as traders pared back rate hike bets on expectations of lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns. In the short-term, the focus continues to be on this new development, so we can expect the bullish bias to hold (all
EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian final CPI and the German ZEW index. The data won’t change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted. Moreover, we can expect sentiment indices like the
As such, Uchida will also be filling in for the BOJ press conference at the bottom of the hour. Anyway, it is a fair assumption that Katayama was questioned about if the ministry of finance might feel compelled to act given the market response to the BOJ decision
Accessing US equity markets remains a structurally broken process for most international participants. Non-US residents routinely face steep capital minimums, complex cross-border wire transfers, and exclusionary onboarding practices from legacy brokerages. These barriers effectively lock a massive demographic out of the world’s most liquid equity markets. Addressing this inefficiency requires a shift in infrastructure. Fractional
USD/JPY has been poking and prodding at levels above 160.00 since last week. And traders are yet to find much conviction to take things to the next level. Intervention risks are very much heightened at this stage, with current levels being where Tokyo last decided to take action at the end of April. To their
There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the board, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1540 and 1.1600 levels. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could limit price movements for the currency pair in the session ahead at least. The ones at
So far this year, they have delivered 75 bps of rate hikes. The decision there was not solely tied to Middle East developments, as inflation pressures had been relatively stubborn in Australia. So, the surge in oil and gas prices after just adds to the mix and reaffirms their decision to tighten policy further in
The decision is a clean hawkish package with one dovish structural element. The rate hike and the explicit commitment to continue raising rates are unambiguous. The bond taper pause from April 2027, fixing monthly JGB purchases at around 2 trillion yen, is the complicating factor: it removes a source of upward yield pressure at the
This is Goldman’s second downward revision in a week, which gives the cuts additional weight as a directional signal rather than a knee-jerk reaction. The bring-forward of Persian Gulf export normalisation by a month, to end-July from end-August, is the mechanical driver of the forecast change and implies a more optimistic read on mine clearance,
The retail sales miss, the first contraction since December 2022, is not a rounding error and points to a domestic demand problem that government trade-in schemes and holiday spending have failed to arrest. Fixed asset investment falling more than twice as fast as expected compounds the concern. For oil and industrial metals, the consumption-side weakness
A clean 25bp hike with unchanged forward guidance would be the least market-moving outcome and is broadly what consensus expects. The risk events sit on either side: a 50bp move or a hawkish dissent from the reflationary wing of the board would steepen the JGB curve and put a bid under the yen, while any
December 30, 2024 at 02:13PM The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up and stalled at
December 26, 2024 at 03:26PM While UK traders celebrate Boxing Day, the GBP/USD is under pressure, falling to new session lows and extending its decline further away from the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average. The pair opened the post-Christmas trading day just below the 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.25365, and remained below it during the Asian Pacific session. As the day progressed into
December 24, 2024 at 09:35AM For the longest of time now, the pair has been caught within a 1,000 pips range over the last eight years. And that’s just the extremes in certain years. Most of the time, the pair has nestled within a much tighter range during this period. But with the over 4% decline this year, there is a chance for
December 23, 2024 at 11:30PM UBS has reiterated its recommendation for investors to capitalize on further dollar strength by diversifying into other currencies. Despite recent gains in the US dollar, driven by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve and US government policy, the bank maintains that the dollar remains overvalued. While UBS does not anticipate a sharp decline in the greenback in the near
December 23, 2024 at 03:37PM The GBP/USD rallied on Friday after sharp declines on Thursday, driven by the BOE’s dovish rate decision, where three members voted for a rate cut. The downward move pushed the pair below the November low of 1.24865, reaching 1.24739—the lowest level since May. However, momentum stalled, and the pair rebounded on Friday, supported by weaker-than-expected US PCE data.
December 20, 2024 at 10:06AM Fundamental Overview The USD got a boost from the FOMC decision as the market perceived it as more hawkish than expected. Overall, apart from some slight tweaks, the Fed matched the market’s pricing. Nonetheless, the market reacted in a big way pushing Treasury yields higher and giving the USD a tailwind. The data is what really matters now
March 18, 2025 at 04:31PM Putin Envoy Dmitriev is on the wires saying: Under Pres. Putin and Pres. Trump, the world has become a much safer place today According to MSNBC, the call between Russia’s Putin and US Pres. Trump is now over after about 1 1/2 hours. US stocks have seen a modest bounce.
March 18, 2025 at 04:12PM Gold continues its bullish momentum, surging $30.60 (1.02%) to $3,031.76, marking a new all-time high. The precious metal is now up 15.57% in 2025, following a 27.2% rally in 2024. With record highs being set, traders must ask: “What could derail this rally, even in the short term?” Until a
March 18, 2025 at 03:51PM The markets remain on edge as Trump/Putin call continues. At stake is: No ceasefire A temporary 30-day ceasefire Something more or less. Russia is expected to outline conditions, including a halt to Western weapon shipments to Ukraine. They also would not want to see Ukraine a part of NATO. Trump
March 18, 2025 at 03:28PM Last week, the NZDUSD found support twice at its 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, giving buyers the confidence to push higher. Yesterday, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average at 0.57464, accelerating the upside move. This breakout cleared key resistance levels, including the February 21 high at
March 18, 2025 at 02:54PM The Bundestag is currently voting on Chancellor Merz’s fiscal reform, with results …well it has passed. The vote was 513 in favor and 207 against. The vote needed 489 votes to pass constitutional reform. The reform debt policies would allow higher defense spending and create a €500 billion ($548 billion)
March 18, 2025 at 02:46PM Tech tremors: Nasdaq slips as major players falter Today’s market movements tell a story of significant shifts, particularly in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, where major technology stocks are grappling with red arrows across the board. Let’s delve deeper into these sector-specific performances, investor sentiments, and strategic moves for traders navigating this
March 18, 2025 at 02:37PM The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 improved to -1.8% from -2.1% previously: In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8 percent on March 18, up from -2.1 percent on March 17. After
March 18, 2025 at 02:29PM A lot is going on technically in the USDCHF. The corrective high reached at the end of last week stalled against the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 3 high to the March low. That level came in at 0.88637. Staying below that 38.2% retracement The sellers
March 18, 2025 at 02:05PM It’s an increasingly-rough day in the US stock market as the optimism from Friday/Monday is eroded. A hint came late yesterday as stocks slumped into the close and now the pain is extending. The S&P 500 is down 1.1% and the Nasdaq down 1.9%. Leading the way lower are the
March 18, 2025 at 01:30PM US officials have recently weighed whether to simplify the task of devising new tariff rates for hundreds of US trading partners by instead sorting nations into one of three tariff tiers, according to sources cited by the WSJ. Trump has repeatedly said reciprocal tariffs would mean “what they charge us,
March 18, 2025 at 01:25PM GBPUSD Technical Outlook GBPUSD has pulled back to retest its 100-hour moving average at 1.29546, briefly dipping to 1.2951 before bouncing higher. Buyers stepped in at this key level, keeping the short-term bullish bias intact. However, a move below the 100-hour MA, followed by a break of the 200-hour MA
March 18, 2025 at 01:16PM Prior was +0.5% (revised to +0.3%) Ex cars/parts +0.4% vs +0.6% prior Capacity utilization 78.2% vs 77.8% expected Manufacturing output +0.9% vs +0.3% expected This is a tough one to game out because factories could be front-running tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 01:08PM The USDCAD is lower and testing the lower extreme of what has been a well-defined consolidation range between 1.4268 and 1.4471, as highlighted by the Red Box on the chart above. Price action has repeatedly tested the upper and lower bounds of this range, failing to sustain any meaningful breakouts
March 18, 2025 at 01:02PM Fitch is out with a note on global growth: The new US administration has started a global trade war that will reduce US and world growth Cuts 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% Cuts 2026 US GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.7% Mexico and Canada will
March 18, 2025 at 12:39PM Prior was +0.3% (revised to +0.4%) Import prices y/y +2.0% vs +1.6% expected (prior 1.9% revised to 1.8%) Export prices m/m +0.1% -0.2% expected There are some inflation impulses here. This report is often ignored because imports/exports are a small part of the US consumption basket but with tariffs now
March 18, 2025 at 12:31PM Prior month 1.9% CPI m/m +1.1% versus +0.6% expected. Prior month +0.1% Core CPI m/m +0.7% versus +0.4% last month CPI y/y +2.6% versus 2.2% estimate Core CPI y/y 2.7% versus 2.1% last month CPI Median y/y 2.9% versus 2.9% estimate. Last month 2.6% revised from 2.4% CPI Trim 2.9%
March 18, 2025 at 12:30PM Prior month 1.366M revised to 1.350M Housing starts vs 1.501m vs 1.380M estimate. Prior month building permits 1.483M Building permits 1.456M vs 1.453M estimate Details from the US Census Building Permits: Total: 1.456 million (↓ 1.2% from January, ↓ 6.8% from Feb 2024) Single-family: 992,000 (↓ 0.2% from January) Multi-family
March 18, 2025 at 11:13AM All options are available on China investments. If necessary, we will block an outbound investment. On April 2, each country will get a tariff number. For some countries, the April 2 tariff may be low. Reciprocal tariffs won’t be automatic 25% plus 25%. Tariffs could be stacked on top of
March 18, 2025 at 11:12AM FXiBot, the latest innovation in forex automation, introduces a precision-focused strategy designed to master GBP/USD trading with a disciplined, single-position approach. Where overtrading fuels risk and erratic outcomes, this system does the opposite, taking a measured, calculated approach with strategic intent. Many trading bots rely on high-frequency execution, flooding the
March 18, 2025 at 10:50AM ForexVIM, an advanced AI-powered trading tool, has been launched to enhance gold price analysis with smart pattern recognition. Designed to improve trade execution, the system identifies recurring price formations and market structures, enabling traders to make data-driven decisions with greater precision. Gold’s price action is influenced by a complex network
March 18, 2025 at 10:20AM Global oil market is balanced now. Russia’s oil processing in 2025 will be higher than in 2024. OPEC+ oil output rise by 100K bpd in April will not affect oil market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 10:00AM Prior -88.5 Outlook 51.6 vs 50.3 expected Prior 26.0 The current conditions index disappointed a bit but the expectations index jumped to a new cycle high amid the German fiscal boost and ongoing ECB monetary easing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 09:38AM But it will only show up over the medium-term In the near-term, US tariffs and increased uncertainty already having adverse economic effects Just some token remarks by Rehn. As a side note, he was reappointed as Bank of Finland governor last week and will stay in charge of the central
March 18, 2025 at 09:05AM Fundamental Overview The USD continues to remain under pressure against most major currencies despite higher Core PCE estimates following the US CPI and PPI reports, and a better-than-expected Retail Sales data yesterday. The market pricing for the Fed went from expecting more than 80 bps of easing by year-end at
March 18, 2025 at 09:04AM Growth in the euro area economy is picking up gradually The headline remark casts doubt on a move in April. That as if they were convinced of their resolve, they will say push the narrative that disinflation is still progressing instead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
March 18, 2025 at 09:02AM The buying started as we got into the early stages of European trade and that’s helping with the overall market mood. In Europe, the DAX is leading the charge and is up 1% on the day now with the CAC 40 up 0.5%. Are dip buyers poised to seize back
March 18, 2025 at 08:27AM What’s there left to say with gold at this point. It’s been a hugely impressive run higher to start the year and we’re now looking to solidify a firm break above $3,000 in establishing the next leg higher. Amid a global trade war and Trump-induced uncertainty, gold is shining alongside
March 18, 2025 at 08:08AM Eurostoxx +0.3% Germany DAX +0.5% France CAC 40 +0.2% UK FTSE +0.2% Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% German stocks are leading the charge ahead of the vote on the debt package in parliament later. US futures are down on the day but at least off earlier lows, with
March 18, 2025 at 07:19AM In the European session, we have the German ZEW which is expected to jump to 50.3 vs 26.0 prior amid the expectations of a boost from the fiscal stimulus. In the American session, the main highlight will be the Canadian CPI report but we will also get a few notable
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December 30, 2024 at 02:13PM The GBPUSD moved higher into the US open, but has since reversed lower on risk-off flows (?). Stock in the US are getting hammered in pre-market trading. Admittedly, the declines are not being pushed by any news, except Friday was soft and today, the selling is continuing. Looking at the GBPUSD, the price moved up and stalled at
