The USDCHF has broken below a key long-term floor that previously stalled declines in 2015, 2023, and 2024. That critical support zone, between 0.8333 and 0.8373, gave way this week, pushing the pair into historically volatile territory — specifically the extremes of 2011, when USDCHF plummeted to an all-time low near 0.7067 (though some argue the level is debatable due to the extreme volatility at the time).
What caused the plunge in 2011?
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Global risk-off panic: Eurozone debt crisis and U.S. debt ceiling fears drove investors to safe-haven flows.
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Euro collapse: Fear of contagion from Greece to Italy and Spain sparked massive EUR selling — EURCHF plunged.
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USD downgrade: In August 2011, S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating, weakening the dollar’s appeal.
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SNB’s inaction: While the Fed and ECB engaged in QE, the Swiss National Bank stayed out, making CHF relatively sound.
This move lower is a pure flight to safety, much like what’s driving flows today amid renewed trade war fears and tariff escalation. CHF and gold are once again beneficiaries of risk-off positioning.
Technical Breakdown
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On the weekly chart, the USDCHF has exited a range-bound red box that held price action since March 2023. That range break confirms a more bearish bias.
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On the 4-hour chart (see chart below), the pair initially found support in the 0.8333–0.8373 zone, bouncing to a high of 0.8581, but has since rotated lower again.
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Applying Fibonacci to the recent plunge:
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38.2% retracement = 0.82899 → price remains below it, keeping sellers firmly in control.
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50% retracement = 0.83456 → a move above would re-enter the key swing zone from the weekly chart.
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Next swing resistance = 0.8373 to 0.84087 → this must break and hold for buyers to gain confidence.
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Bottom Line
The break below 0.8333–0.8373 opens the door to deeper downside risk, possibly revisiting the chaotic 2011 extremes. Unless buyers reclaim key retracement and swing levels, the bearish pressure remains dominant — with CHF strength fueled by global risk aversion and safe-haven demand.
