October 04, 2024 at 01:30PM
Two-month net revision: +72K vs -86K prior
Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% prior
Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.0510% vs 4.220% prior
Participation rate: 62.7% vs 62.7% prior
Private payrolls +223K vs 118K prior
Prior private payrolls +118K revised to +114K
U6 underemployment rate: 7.7% vs 7.9% prior
Average hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expected
Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)
Average hourly earnings: 4.0% vs +3.8% y/y expected
Average weekly hours: 34.2 vs 34.3 prior
Change in manufacturing payrolls: -7K vs -24K prior
Household survey: +430K vs +168K prior
Government jobs: +31K vs +24K prior
Full time: +631K vs -438K prior
Part time: -201K vs +527K prior
Full report
Prior to the data, the market was pricing in a 32% of the Fed lowering rates by 50 basis points at the November 7 meeting. USD/JPY was trading at 146.58 ahead of the numbers.
The unemployment rate very nearly fell to 4.0% and this is the strongest headline reading since March. I think you can bury the idea of 50 basis points on this, even if the October report is soft.
The US dollar understandably jumped on this report as it’s very difficult to poke holes in any of it. USD/JPY is particularly strong, now up 160 pips since the report to 148.18.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
