US retail sales are due at he bottom of the hour and expected to rise 1.3% on the headline, 0.3% ex-autos. and 0.6% on the control group.
The first thing to watch is whether the plunge in consumer confidence since January has led to any decreases in spending. The indication from most companies is that spending has held up but we will be looking for pockets of weakness.
The second thing in the composition of spending is a shift to buying goods from services. This would capture an effort by consumers to get ahead of tariffs. In turn, it would mean cutting back on things like travel and restaurants. We are likely to see more of that in the April report but it could have started sooner.
The data is due out at 8:30 am ET
Two things to watch in the US retail sales report
