October 04, 2024 at 01:40PM
The US dollar has moved to the upside after the stronger-than-expected US jobs report. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. The nonfarm payroll was much stronger than expected at 254K versus 140K estimate. That’s a highest level since March when nonfarm payrolls rose by 310K and is the third highest for the year (January rose by 256K). The revisions added 72K to the prior month’s.
78K in leisure and hospitality
76K in healthcare
Looking at the yields:
2 year yield is 3.861%, +14.8 basis points. Last Friday it was at 3.56%
5 year yield 3.763%, +13.1 basis points
10 year yield 3.945%, plus not .6 basis points
30 year yield 4.236%, +5.7 basis points
The chance of a 50 basis point hike is down to around 11%. It seems certain that if the Fed does cut to recalibrate the Fed funds rate to inflation it would be a 25 basis point cut.
In the US stock market, the major indices are higher:
Dow +190.41 points from +88.41 points just before the number
S&P +39 points from +17.31 points just before the number
Nasdaq +188.16 point from +72.91 points just before the number
In the forex:
USDJPY is broken above the ceiling at 147.20 – 147.338, and days next targeting the high price from August 16 at 149.390. Looking at the four-hour chart, the price also broke above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2024 high. That level comes in at 148.116.
EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the swing area between 1.1001 and 1.10145 and also the 50% midpoint of the move up from the August 1 low at 1.0995. That is now close risk. On the downside, the 61.8% retracement and swing area near 1.0944 is the next target. Below that the rising 100-day moving average of 1.0928 is targeted.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
