The NZDUSD started the week under pressure, with the move lower beginning near the 200-hour moving average, which sat at 0.6061 at the time. Monday’s high reached 0.6058, but sellers leaned against that level, triggering a move to the downside. The decline extended into Tuesday and Wednesday, with the pair breaking below the 50% retracement of the May low-to-June high rally, which comes in at 0.5982. While the pair traded below that key level on three separate occasions, including a Wednesday low of 0.5975, it failed to build sustained momentum below the midpoint.
A rebound began midweek, with the price climbing to a high of 0.6042 early in Friday’s Asian session—once again just shy of the now-lower 200-hour moving average at 0.6044. Interestingly, the week began and ended with sellers leaning against the 200-hour MA, increasing the technical importance of that level heading into next week. Keep that moving average in mind into next week’s trading.
The latest leg lower today initially found support near the 100-hour moving average at 0.6006 (blue line), but over the past several hours, the pair has been hovering above and below that level, signaling a market in pause mode as it digests recent moves.
Heading into next week, the 100-hour MA will serve as the near-term barometer for bias. A bounce off the 100-hour MA could refocus attention on the 200-hour MA as key resistance near 0.6036–0.6044. On the flip side, a move below the 100-hour MA with momentum opens the door back toward 0.5982 (50% retracement) and 0.5975 (weekly low).
While sellers held the upper hand this week, especially with the pair spending most of the time below the 200-hour MA, buyers showed resolve at the 50% level. With price now caught in between, the battle lines are drawn at the moving averages
