HSBC economists say that the European Central Bank is likely to proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, even though the euro’s recent strength could push inflation below the ECB’s 2% target, citing:
- due to the delayed effects of monetary policy, the ECB may choose to overlook short-term currency fluctuations
- while the euro has risen sharply against the dollar, its overall trade-weighted appreciation has been more moderate
- ECB June meeting minutes highlighted that eurozone businesses have faced profit margin pressures
HSBC says the ECB could shy away from rate cuts even if the euro keeps strengthening