How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

December 5, 2025
-FXnews

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 22 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 84 bps

ECB: 1 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 7 bps

BoE: 23 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 64 bps

BoC: 1 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 7 bps

SNB: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 7 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 19 bps (75% probability of rate hike at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 66 bps

RBA: 0 bps (100% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2026: 32 bps

RBNZ 2026: 40 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing/tightening expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing/tightening is expected in 2026 alone.

This week has been pretty lacklustre in terms of macro events. The most notable change was seen on the BoJ pricing front.

Such “leaks” are of course deliberate and common as Japanese officials try to give early hints to the market to avoid surprises and high volatility.

Other than that, we didn’t have much. Yes, we got a few US data releases that came in on the softer side, but they didn’t change anything. Next week, all eyes will be on the Fed’s decision

How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?

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