A Reuters opinion piece is bullish gold. It’s a long and detailed piece, I’ve summarised below:
Gold’s Surge: Bubble or Paradigm Shift?
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Gold is up more than 60% this year — its strongest gain in nearly 50 years — raising the question of bubble vs. structural repricing.
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Inflation-adjusted, gold is at its most expensive ever, yet speculative mania is absent.
What’s changed?
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Historically, gold moved inversely with real yields.
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Since 2022, gold has risen despite rising real yields and falling inflation — a major break from past behaviour.
Key catalyst
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The U.S. seizure of Russia’s FX reserves shook confidence in dollar-denominated assets.
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Central banks began buying gold as a sanction-proof, politically neutral reserve.
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Official gold purchases have exceeded 1,000 tonnes annually for three consecutive years.
Why this doesn’t look like a bubble
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ETF holdings are still 10% below 2020 highs.
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Gold-miner ETF shares have shrunk by one-third.
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Wall Street is sceptical, forecasting future gold prices well below spot.
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Speculators are preoccupied with crypto and AI assets instead of metals.
Macro backdrop is radically different from the 1970s
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The U.S. has shifted from creditor to largest global debtor.
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U.S
Gold’s explosive rally may reflect a monetary regime shift, not a classic bubble
