January 20, 2025 at 08:53PM
Donald Trump sworn in as President
Trump to lay out trade vision but won’t impose tariffs yet – report
Full text: Trump admin circulates document on priorities to Republicans
Trump to pardon non-violent Jan 6 defendants, commute the rest – report
Trump inauguration speech highlights tariffs. US dollar bounces
Five things we learned from Trump’s first hours in office
Druckenmiller: US dollar rally is in the ‘seventh inning’
Trump official confirms earlier report that he won’t impose Day 1 tariffs
ECB’s Vujcic: Risks around inflation are balanced
Markets:
Gold up $7 to $2708
Canada 10-year yields down 2 bps to 3.28%
WTI crude oil down $0.99 to $76.89
S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
NZD leads, USD lags
The big move of Day 1 of Trump’s second term was a weakening dollar. The dollar fell 50-100 pips across the board after a report — later confirmed — that Trump won’t be imposing any tariffs on Day One. Instead, he plans a memo that will study trade relationships with China, Mexico and Canada among others.
The dollar bounced when he mentioned putting on tariffs in his first speech but that rebound later faded and the dollar is rounding out the day near the lows.
The takeaway is positive for global growth and suggests a plan to negotiate before putting on tariffs, not afterwards .At the very least that buys some time and at best signals someone who is never going to put on strong tariffs. Of course, there are going to be many twists and turns on the tariff road but the dollar falling on the first day of his Presidency argues that there are still opportunities internationally and that growth (and global growth) remain priorities.
Over in crypto, Trump’s ‘official’ meme coin is down 43% on a sell-the-fact trade and the entire space has been volatile. In US trading, bitcoin fell close to $100K but held the line and has bounced to $104K. There was some disappointment as crypto wasn’t mentioned in any early documents or his first speeches.
I would expect to see more of a relief trade in Asia, at least until Trump tweets or leaks his latest ideas.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.