December 04, 2024 at 11:26AM
Fundamental
Overview
The fundamentals in the
crude oil market haven’t changed much in the past month. In fact, crude oil remains
confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the
market continues to weigh the future scenarios.
On one hand, we have the
Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish for fear of the tariffs and a slowdown
in global growth as other countries could retaliate. You can throw there also a
potential increase in supply and the geopolitical risk premium easing with the
Trump’s administration.
On the other hand, we might
have an increase in global growth expectations due to the global central bank
easing and the Trump’s pro-growth policies. We’ve been seeing early signs of
this with the latest US data reaccelerating.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil continues to trade in a range between the resistance around the 72.00 handle and the
support around the 67.00 handle. The buyers will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 78.00 handle next, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the 65.00 handle.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently broke above the middle of the range around the
69.50 level which acts as kind of a barometer for the short term sentiment. The
buyers piled in on a break higher and will now target a rally into the top of
the range. The sellers will need to see the price falling back below the 69.50
level to position for a drop into the 67.00 support.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the rally from the lows likely helped
by strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and the positioning into an OPEC+
output cut extension.
If we get a pullback into
the 69.50 zone, we can expect the buyers to pile in for a rally into the 72.00
resistance, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target the lows. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we
have the US ADP, the US ISM Services PMI and Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude
the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
