BlackRock’s Reider says US rates too high – “Fed Funds rate remains far too restrictive”

August 21, 2024 at 11:37PM
Reider citing the US government report, from the Bureau of Labour Statistics showing annual preliminary benchmark revisions in payrolls came in at -818k since March 2023.

ICYM the numbers:

Non-farm payrolls benchmark revisions -818K

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Non-farm payrolls revisions cut 818,000 jobs

ps. Ask me for tips on how to get the data quicker than anyone else (got a phone?):

Reports that at least 3 major banks got the jobs revision prior to the public release

Anyway, back to Reider:

revisions in payrolls at -818k since March 2023 comes in addition to 778k jobs being revised away since Feb 2022

This magnitude of preliminary revisions helps to validate some of the concern around the weakness in the labor market in recent months.

Ultimately, today’s report highlights the importance of the labor portion of the Fed’s dual mandate and codifies the fact that the Fed Funds rate remains far too restrictive amidst slowing inflation and a moderating economy.

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next meet on September 17 and 18. A rate cut is baked in. Will it be 25 or 50bp remains the question (I’m @ 25).

Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday at 10am US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.