Australia March Westpac Leading Index, Westpac’s summary points:
The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.
- Leading Index growth rate declines to 0.6%.
- Key components starting to capture tariff policy shock.
- Commodities, interest rate moves still the main positives.
- Cracks appearing around financial markets and confidence.
While the Leading Index continues to show an above-trend growth pulse, the latest softening marks an important shift. Recall that the headline measure is a six-month annualised growth rate. Hence, even sharp monthly developments take time to move momentum. The Index is only just starting to capture the effects from the trade policy disruptions that escalated sharply following US President Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement on April 2. The situation is uncertain and there are other factors at play but some further softening in the growth pulse looks likely in the months ahead.
Bolding above is mine
