The AUDUSD remains confined to a choppy, back-and-forth range, though with a slightly bullish tilt following this week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision. The central bank surprised markets on Tuesday by holding its benchmark rate unchanged, defying expectations for a 25 basis point cut. The surprise shifted sentiment in favor of the Aussie dollar, giving the AUDUSD pair a boost. However, that upside momentum is now being tested.
Today’s session saw buyers attempt a breakout above key resistance between 0.6535 and 0.6556 (see red numbered circles), but the move failed to hold, with price retreating back below the zone amid renewed USD buying during the U.S. session. That potential false break leaves bulls on the back foot, and the upside momentum in question.
Technically, both sides have had their chances—and both missed. Earlier this week, sellers had a window when the pair broke below the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (on Monday). But the RBA’s decision quickly undermined the bearish move, pushing price back above both the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs, which currently sit near 0.6522 and 0.6506 (see blue and green lines).
Now, the pair trades back within the swing area marked by prior highs and lows (see red numbered circles on the chart), and though the bias is more neutral in the short term, the price remains comfortably above both key moving averages—a point in favor of the bulls.
To reignite downside momentum, sellers would need to force a move back below the 100/200 MAs. A sustained break there would shift the bias lower and expose the 50% retracement of the June low, which comes in near 0.64809.
On the flip side, for bulls to regain control, the pair needs to push back above 0.6556 and then target the recent highs near 0.6590. A break above that zone would build stronger bullish conviction and open the door for further upside extension.
For now, AUDUSD remains in a tug-of-war, with central bank policy and technical barriers keeping the pair range-bound and indecisive
