The Canada jobs report came in stronger than expectations with employment change at 53.6 thousand and the unemployment rate falling sharply to 6.5% from 7.0%. The participation rate did fall which probably helped push down the unemployment rate. That rate fell to 65.1% from 65.3%. The other caveat is for the 2nd month in the row the gains were largely in part-time employment with a rise of 63.0K (last month rose 85.1 K).
The CAD has moved higher (the USDCAD lower) as the market prices in the chance for a hike in 2026. Looking at the hourly chart, the overlay of the 100 and 200 day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the mid September low are all been tested between 1.3886 and 1.3901 (see blue and green overlaid lines on the hourly chart above). The price is dipping below all those levels currently with a low of 1.38846 – but only by a pip or two.
This is a key area for both buyers and sellers. Can the sellers keep the momentum going? Will the dip buyers lean in with a close stop on a deeper break? It would take a move back above the higher 100 day MA to give the dip buyers some breathing room. If that can be done, we could see a corrective move back toward the 1.3923 to 1.3935 area.
Conversely, a break below and the door opens for more selling momentum.
Key level
