Fundamental
Overview
Gold continues to pull back
from the highs reached after the first Israel attack against Iran. The market
kind of sensed that a de-escalation was the most likely outcome and the safe
haven flows reversed.
This week it’s been all
about the Middle East because we haven’t got any key data point and the Fed
kept everything unchanged as expected. Therefore, we remain in a mostly
rangebound price action.
In the bigger picture
though, gold remains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall
amid Fed easing and just a hawkish repricing in rate cuts expectations could trigger
corrections in the short term. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the
trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the 3120 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below the minor upward trendline. This should be a
signal for more downside to come with the 3293 level as the first target for
the sellers. That’s where we can expect the dip-buyers to step in with a
defined risk below the level to position for a rally into new highs. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish
bets into the major trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have now a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum
on this timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to
keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to
start targeting again the 3438 level
