The ECB will announce its interest decision imminently with expectations of a 25 basis point cut. Meanwhile stocks are starting the US session with the Dow down by about -600 points, but the S&P is up marginally and the Nasdaq is also up marginally. US yields are higher by a basis point of two. The USD is modestly higher.
EURUSD: Eyes on ECB rate cut and key technical support
With the ECB widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, the EURUSD is trading at 1.1359—still over 100 pips below this year’s high at 1.1473, but well above the 2024 low near 1.0200, keeping the pair closer to the high end of its yearly range.
For a more bearish technical bias to develop through the ECB decision, two key events need to occur:
-
Break below the 100-hour moving average at 1.13495 – Price is currently hovering just above this level.
-
Sustained move below the 1.1271–1.1275 support area – This zone includes the 61.8% retracement of the range from the 2020 high (at 1.1271) and the July 2023 high (at 1.1275).
A confirmed move below both levels would likely accelerate downside momentum. Keep an eye on these technical levels as the ECB rate decision approaches.
USDJPY: Bounces off key support but needs to clear 100-hour MA to shift bias
The USDJPY dipped into a key swing area that dates back to August and September, between 141.64 and 141.94. The low extended to 141.66 before rebounding modestly.
On the topside, the falling 100-hour moving average, currently at 142.90, is a key resistance level. Although the pair briefly broke above it during the European session, the move lacked follow-through
