February 12, 2025 at 04:48AM
Fidelity’s global macro director says the uptrend in US equites “feels like late innings”
Wall Street Journal on ‘what we know’ about Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
Trump says “we’ll see” when asked if reciprocal tariffs are coming Wednesday
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on Wednesday
US CPI data due Wednesday, here are the ranges of estimates (why they’re crucial to know)
SEK traders heads up – Riksbank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks on Wednesday
Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview – likely the final 50bp interest rate cut
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will monitor the impact of US tariff and immigration policies
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene speaking on Wednesday
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has not said much at all so far
South Korea will hold an ‘export strategy meeting’ next week to discuss new Trump tariffs
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will conduct monetary policy appropriately
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1710 (vs. estimate at 7.2971)
Japan’s Foreign Trade Council says USD 1tln investment plan in the US is challenging
Will Bank of Japan Governor Ueda rescue the JPY? Speaking at 5 past the hour
Australian Q4 New home lending +1.4% q/q
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be speaking Wednesday, February 12, 2025
Japan Industry Minister requested the US exclude Japan from steel & aluminium tariffs
More info on US 25% steel tariffs would stack on other levies on Canada
Bitcoin today by TradeCompass
Japan’s fin min Kato says will assess, respond to US tariffs
US media report says its all over for Powell – ‘lame duck’, but he’ll still serve his term
White House says 25% steel tariffs would stack on top of other levies
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Trump trade adviser: Australia ‘killing aluminium market’ – blow to tariff exemption hope
More from Fed’s Williams – says he is less worried about inflation expectations
Summers: Very real possibility the next Fed move is going to be upwards on interest rates
MUFG analysts forecast that USD/JPY could decline to 140
Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 12 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
More from Fed’s Williams: The longer run trends are more neutral for inflation
Yen
crosses rose today. USD/JPY hit highs above 153.70 in a more or
less steady grind higher. There was no fresh news nor data.
Bank
of Japan Governor Ueda spoke in parliament but didn’t add anything
new or interesting. Rate hikes/policy normalisation will depend on
developments in the economy, he said. He was perhaps not as un-dovish
(hawkish is probably too strong a word to use for Ueda) as expected,
contributing to yen weakness (I think I’m back fitting a narrative
here, take with a grain of salt).
The
yield on 10 year Japanese Government Bonds rose to their highest
since February of 2011.
Elsewhere
across major FX there is not a lot of net change on the session.
Head
of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve, John Williams, spoke
during the US afternoon and added a little more into early Asia. In a
nutshell he said monetary policy is right where it should be, and is
mildly restrictive.
In
a head-in-the-sand comment he said its hard to say if uncertainty
issues are weighing on economy. Perhaps he should be thinking if the
‘uncertainty issues’ are boosting the economy? Opinions may
differ depending on what side of the political fence you’ve planted
your flag, but the volatile environment of on then off then on again
(and round and round we go) economy-related policies are not
conducive to business planning, such as capex and what have you. The
stock market seems sanguine enough, though.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
