February 12, 2025 at 02:43AM
ANZ have published their forecast for the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday 19 February 2025.
In brief:
We expect a 50bp cut in the OCR to 3.75% next Wednesday. That would be
consistent with RBNZ November messaging, economists’ forecasts, and market
pricing. Data since the November Monetary Policy Review has been mixed, but
overall consistent with the RBNZ’s guidance.
With the OCR now much closer to neutral and the economy showing clear signs of
life, we expect more caution from the RBNZ from here – this is likely the last 50bp
cut. However, given the RBNZ’s central estimate of neutral is 3%, the risks are tilted
towards a lower OCR trough than the 3.5% we are forecasting.
More:
tone to be one of confidence that the
inflation outlook is benign
while acknowledging upside risks to tradable and thus
headline inflation
OCR track will likely be lower … we aren’t expecting a very large change in the
track overall
On the currency:
Assuming we don’t see a big change in the RBNZ’s track, we don’t think we will see
significant market moves on the day, and volatility (in FX and interest rate markets) will
likely continue to be driven by offshore events.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
