February 07, 2025 at 12:30PM
Headlines:
US jobs report the main event on the agenda today
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
USD/JPY holds the bounce from earlier but the coast isn’t clear yet
ECB’s de Guindos: Inflation to start converging to 2% target in the spring
Germany December industrial production -2.4% vs -0.6% m/m expected
Germany December trade balance €20.7 billion vs €17.0 billion expected
France December trade balance -€6.6 billion vs -€7.1 billion expected
UK January Halifax house prices +0.7% vs +0.2% m/m expected
China gold reserves seen increasing again to start the new year
Markets:
GBP leads, JPY lags on the day
European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures flat
US 10-year yields up 0.2 bps to 4.440%
Gold up 0.3% to $2,864.49
WTI crude up 0.9% to $71.10
Bitcoin up 0.9% to $97,716
It was a quiet session this European morning and understandably so. The main event on the agenda today is the US jobs report. And with tariff fears subsiding during the week, markets are taking in the calm in focusing back on economic data for a change.
The dollar is steadier across the board, keeping little changed against most major currencies. USD/JPY was fairly interesting during the session though. The pair was down to a low of 150.95 in Asia but recovered strongly to jump back above 152.00 in European trading. The pair is now up 0.5% to 152.20 on the day.
And that comes despite a lack of catalysts elsewhere. US futures are flat and European indices are keeping more tepid. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are also flattish with bonds waiting on the non-farm payrolls data.
Still, the pair is keeping just below key technical levels and that will be interesting to watch amid the US data later.
Besides that, dollar pairs were rather lackadaisical in general. EUR/USD swung between 1.0370-90 and GBP/USD in between 1.2440-60 mostly. USD/CAD is also little changed around 1.4320-30 for the most part and AUD/USD around 0.6280-90.
In other markets, gold remains buoyed as the precious metal is set for a sixth straight week of gains. China data once again showed Beijing maintaining its buying momentum for a third straight month. $3,000 next for gold perhaps?
Anyway, it’s all about the US jobs report now. Let’s see how that shakes things up before the weekend.
And speaking of the weekend, will investors be willing to brave the risk of possible Trump headlines during the break? Tariff threats were evident at the end of last week but not so much this time around. So, are we feeling greedy again? Well, first thing’s first. Gotta get through that non-farm payrolls hurdle.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
