January 31, 2025 at 12:30PM
Dollar keeps steadier on the session, eyes PCE price data later
ECB’s Müller: It is realistic for inflation to be near 2% by the middle of this year
Bavaria January CPI +2.5% vs +3.0% y/y prior
Germany January unemployment change 11k vs 14k expected
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?
European indices open slightly higher, look to end the month on a high
Gold clips $2,800 for the first time as the run higher continues
France January preliminary CPI +1.4% vs +1.5% y/y expected
What are the main events for today?
Germany December retail sales -1.6% vs +0.2% m/m expected
UK January Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected
FX option expiries for 31 January 10am New York cut
BOJ governor Ueda: Will continues to hike rates if economy moves in line with forecast
BOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation is still somewhat below 2%
Nomura now expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through 2025
Goldman Sachs sees Brent oil price averaging $78 in 2025
It’s been a pretty calm session with no major market moves. On the data side, the French and German inflation readings were the highlights and they missed estimates weighing a bit on the euro as traders added to rate cuts bets.
Gold has been in the spotlight since yesterday as it made a new all-time high and continues to display a bullish price action. Crude oil, on the other hand, is negative on the day as it erased yesterday’s pop triggered by Trump’s comments on tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The support around the key $72.00 level is still holding.
In the FX market, the US Dollar is mildly strong as traders might be erring on the cautious side heading into the weekend with the risk of a gap on either side if Trump imposes or not tariffs tomorrow.
In the equity space we are having kind of the same sentiment with cautious optimism as the price continues to slowly edge higher. Treasury yields are almost flat.
In the American session, the focus will switch to the US Core PCE Index and the US Q4 Employment Cost Index. The PCE shouldn’t change much in terms of market pricing, while the ECI might have a bigger impact.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
