December 30, 2024 at 02:04PM
Barring a miracle turnaround in the final two trading days of the month, gold will finish lower in December. That’s unusual because there has been a strong seasonal tailwind for gold in December forever and it’s risen in the month in every year since 2016.
Now, it’s not hard to understand why gold is lower this month. The Fed took a hawkish turn, the US dollar has strengthened and bonds sold off. Gold priced in yen, for instance, is up 3.4% in the month.
There is also plenty of good news for gold bulls on the year, as it’s gained 26.5% — that’s the best year since 2010.
Perhaps another good sign is that the prior two times where it declined in December — 2015 and 2016 — it rallied strongly in January, by 6.6% and 5.4%, respectively.
Technically, there is some consolidation ongoing after a big run-up since March.
Fundamentally, I think the most-important driver right now is that China’s central bank has resumed buying gold. We should get an update on December purchases around the 7th of January and it will be an important signal if they continue to buy.
I will also be watching Russia in January and for signs that Trump could end the Ukraine war (so far, it’s not looking likely).
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
