The Wall Street Journal is outlining what happened over the last 24 or so hours and what continues to be clear is that Trump and Netanyahu seem to be diverging more and more. Netanyahu continues to say that he and Trump are on the same page, but Trump is not liking the implications of the war. His approval rating from a Reuters Poll is holding near his lowest level at 35% with only 22% approving the handling of the cost of living.
Keys points from the article”
- Trump urged Netanyahu to avoid escalating the conflict after Iran launched missile attacks on Israel.
- When it became clear Israel would respond, Trump reportedly pushed for a limited retaliation rather than a broader military campaign.
- Trump’s primary goal is to preserve ongoing peace negotiations with Iran and avoid disruptions that could derail a broader agreement.
- Israel and the U.S. are increasingly diverging on strategy, particularly regarding Lebanon and Hezbollah.
- Israel struck an Iranian petrochemical facility and air-defense sites after Iran launched nearly 30 missiles at Israel.
- Trump later called on Netanyahu to end the attacks, and Israel publicly agreed to refrain from further strikes unless Iran attacks again.
- Iran appears to be benefiting from the perception that Washington and Jerusalem are not fully aligned on key regional issues.
- Israel remains focused on weakening Hezbollah and maintaining pressure on Iran, while the Trump administration is focused on ending the conflict and stabilizing energy markets.
- U.S. and Israeli militaries continue to coordinate closely, including U.S. assistance in intercepting Iranian missiles, despite growing political differences.
- Trump previously intervened to stop a larger Israeli strike on Beirut and has repeatedly pressed for restraint.
- Analysts say Iran is testing whether Trump can effectively restrain Israel as negotiations continue.
- Markets remain sensitive because any renewed escalation threatens energy infrastructure, oil supplies, and the prospects for a broader peace agreement.
Implications
The report suggests that the biggest risk to a U.S.-Iran peace agreement may no longer be direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran, but rather the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli objectives. President Trump appears focused on securing a deal, reducing geopolitical tensions, and preventing further spikes in energy prices, while Israel continues to prioritize degrading Hezbollah and maintaining military pressure on Iran. This difference in priorities creates uncertainty around the durability of any ceasefire and complicates ongoing negotiations. For markets, the developments are a mixed signal. Trump’s successful intervention to limit escalation is positive for risk sentiment and oil prices, but the fact that Israel and Iran remain willing to exchange direct strikes highlights how fragile the situation remains
