Wood Mackenzie expects China’s oil demand growth to slow sharply over the next few years, approaching zero by 2027 as the country nears peak consumption.
- Senior analyst Alan Gelder said gasoline and diesel demand are already in decline, with only modest growth remaining in jet fuel — and even that driven mainly by petrochemicals rather than transport.
- Crude runs are expected to edge higher in 2026 compared with 2025, but weak underlying demand means growth will be limited.
Gelder highlighted large inventory builds earlier this year, followed by recent drawdowns as prices softened. He said the key uncertainty for global oil markets in 2026 is the extent to which China rebuilds commercial inventories, especially given limited growth in crude runs and rising refined-product exports. How much surplus crude ends up in Chinese storage will have a significant influence on the trajectory of global oil prices.
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The shift toward near-zero demand growth reduces China’s role as the global oil demand engine and places greater emphasis on inventory flows
Wood Mackenzie: China nearing peak oil demand as growth drops toward zero by 2027
