March 14, 2025 at 06:57PM
The price action in both the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD was up and down indicative of a market that is trying to figure out which way to go.
The AUDUSD has been fluctuating around the 100-bar and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart this week, but is currently trading above both as it moves toward the weekly highs and the end of the week.
The pair is now testing a swing area between 0.6326 and 0.6336, a key resistance zone. A confirmed break above this level next week would open the door for a move toward the 100-day moving average at 0.6356. Notably, the price has not traded above the 100-day MA since October 21, 2024, making a breakout above this level a significant bullish signal. If buyers take control, the next major target would be the February high of 0.6407.
Conversely, failure to break above the swing area or the 100-day moving average next week could see sellers re-enter the market and the disappointment. A move back below the 100-bar MA (0.6301) and 200-bar MA (0.62888) would invalidate the upside move and shift momentum back to the downside. In that scenario, initial support sits at 0.6245, with a stronger swing area between 0.6162 and 0.61779 as the next key level for buyers to defend. The next sessions will be critical in determining whether bulls can maintain control or if sellers push the pair lower once again.
Taking a look at the NZDUSD, the pairhas experienced choppy price action throughout the week but is now trading near its weekly highs as the day and the week comes to a close. Buyers are pushing to the upside.
Earlier in the week the bias was not as favorable for the buyers. However, the pair DID find support at the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at 0.56804 on two separate occasions. Holding this level has proven to be a critical technical floor, and its significance increases moving forward.
As long as the price remains above this support, the bias stays more bullish. A move below would shift momentum back to the downside, at least in the short term.
On the upside, the 100-day moving average at 0.5750 is now being tested, serving as a key barometer for both buyers and sellers heading into the new trading week. A sustained break above this level would strengthen the bullish bias, with the next targets being the February high at 0.5771, followed by a swing area at 0.5796. Beyond that, the 38.2% retracement of the September 2024 decline at 0.58446 becomes the next upside objective. If buyers fail to hold momentum above the 100-day MA, sellers could look to regain control, making the 200-bar MA at 0.56804 a crucial downside level to watch.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
