We are now into Day 2 of fully open trading since the war in Iran began, and the tone remains decisively risk-off.
US equities are under heavy pressure:
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Nasdaq: -474 points
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S&P 500: -103 points
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Dow: -719 points
At the same time, classic defensive flows are in play:
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Crude oil +6.3%
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10-year yield +3.4 bps at 4.086%
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USD higher vs all major currencies
The dollar is up roughly 0.65% versus the EUR and GBP, and about 0.25% versus the JPY, reinforcing the broader flight-to-safety bid.
In the video above, Greg Michalowski walks through the technical outlook for the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — focusing on the key levels that will determine whether sellers extend control or buyers can stabilize the move.
EURUSD – Testing the yearly lows
The EURUSD extended lower today and came within seven pips of the 2026 low (1.15764 from mid-January). That proximity alone keeps the downside pressure firmly intact.
Although the pair has bounced modestly, it remains below short-term resistance levels. To shift the bias even modestly back toward the buyers, the pair needs to reclaim a key upside target outlined in the video. Until that happens, this remains a trend-like move lower, and rallies are corrective rather than structural.
The burden of proof is clearly on the buyers.
USDJPY – Momentum stalls near channel resistance
USDJPY pushed to a new high going back to January 23, but the upside momentum has begun to stall.
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The pair failed ahead of a topside hourly channel trendline near 158.23
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Today’s high reached 157.96
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Price has since slipped back below the February high at 157.65
That 157.65 level is now a key short-term barometer. The pair is currently hovering just above it as North America gets underway.
Holding above keeps buyers in control.
A sustained move back below would signal fading upside momentum and give sellers a foothold.
GBPUSD – Breakdown and rebound battle
The GBPUSD saw the most aggressive technical damage.
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Broke below yesterday’s low
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Broke below the December 17 swing low at 1.33106
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Broke below the December 9 low at 1.32867
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Touched a session low at 1.3263
That sequence represents a clear downside extension.
However, the pair has since rebounded and now trades near 1.33117, testing:
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The 38.2% retracement of today’s range near 1.3324
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A falling 100-hour MA (on the 5-minute chart) near that same zone
Just above sits the 50% midpoint of the day’s range at 1.3343.
This 1.3324–1.3343 area is the immediate battleground. If buyers can reclaim that zone, short-term control shifts modestly higher. If sellers defend it, the broader downside bias remains firmly intact.
Bottom Line
Markets remain in risk-off mode:
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Stocks lower
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Oil sharply higher
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Yields rising
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Dollar broadly stronger
From a technical perspective, all three major currency pairs are trading at or near pivotal levels
