The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. As noted by Fed Chair Powell and other Fed members, the unemployment rate should be the most important indicator at the moment, although a notable deviation in the headline payrolls won’t be ignored.
Looking at the distribution of forecasts, we can notice that the expectations are skewed to the upside for the unemployment rate. So, a 4.4% rate or lower will be taken as a hawkish surprise, while we need a 4.7% rate or higher for a dovish surprise.
Having said that, I have a feeling that CPI will be more important because inflation worry is what is constraining the Fed from acting more quickly and with more conviction on rate cuts
