What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?

Why it’s important?

The ranges of estimates are
important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the
expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another
important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact, although we can have a range of
estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the
range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but
on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

Non-Farm Payrolls

• 50K-185K range of estimates
• 110K-155K range most clustered
• 135K consensus

Unemployment Rate

• 4.2% (45%)
• 4.1% (51%) – consensus
• 4.0% (4%)

Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y

• 4.0% (38%)
• 3.9% (59%) – consensus
• 3.8% (3%)

Average Hourly Earnings M/M

• 0.4% (2%)
• 0.3% (92%) – consensus
• 0.2% (6%)

Average Weekly Hours

• 34.3 (3%)
• 34.2 (68%) – consensus
• 34.1 (29%)

As I already mentioned in the previous days, this data is old news because it doesn’t reflect yet the new hit to growth from Wednesday’s tariffs announcement. I would expect the market to fade a positive report and increase the bearish momentum in case we get bad data