EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, the main event is the ECB policy announcement. The central bank is widely expected to hike by 25 bps and bring the deposit rate to 2.25%. This will likely be framed as an “insurance” rate hike to lean against the risk of second-round effects and maintain credibility, especially in light of another expected upward revision to inflation projections.
The focus will be on the forward guidance. The market is pricing in 70 bps of tightening by year-end, which means traders basically expect two more rate hikes to follow. Although the ECB will likely keep the door open for more action if necessary, I feel like the overall tone will likely be more dovish compared to market expectations.
I expect the ECB to take a pause at least until September to see how the data and the US-Iran standoff evolve over the summer.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims figures. Headline PPI Y/Y is expected at 6.4% vs 6.0% prior, while the Core PPI Y/Y is seen at 5.4% vs 5.2% prior. At this point the data isn’t going to change anything in terms of expectations as the focus has turned to the FOMC decision next week.
Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs 225K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1785K vs 1777K prior. The US jobs data has been surprising to the upside for months which eventually shifted the Fed’s focus back towards inflation and the possibility of rate hikes
