EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Spanish PPI and the UK CBI which are not going to change anything for the respective central banks.
The ECB is widely expected to hike in June and then wait at least until September to deliver another rate hike if necessary. The BoE, on the other hand, is seen keeping the Bank Rate unchanged in June with the first of the two hikes expected coming in September at the earliest.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, the only highlight is the US Consumer Confidence report. It’s expected to tick lower to 92.0 vs 92.8 prior. This is generally a market-moving release, especially when there are big deviations, but it’s not going to change anything for the Fed at this point, so the reaction will likely be muted.
As a reminder, the Fed has now basically abandoned the easing bias with Fed’s Waller switching focus back to inflation. We can now expect the FOMC to remove the easing bias in the June statement unless the US-Iran situation officially resolves before then. If nothing changes, we might have a more hawkish than expected decision
