EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we get the preliminary CPI reports for Spain and Germany. Before the German CPI, we will get the German states figures which generally give clues on the national CPI data. The national CPI is essentially a weighted average of the states.
Inflation is expected to ease a bit on a monthly basis but still remain elevated due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. The data isn’t going to change anything for the ECB at this point as the central bank has already pre-committed to a hold as they gather more data and hope for a resolution before their next meeting in June.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we have the BoC and FOMC policy decisions. The central bank will likely maintain a cautious stance and a “wait and see” approach amid sluggish economy and inflationary risks stemming from US-Iran war.
The BoC will also release new economic forecasts which are expected to mirror the other central banks’ outlooks, with upward revision for inflation and downward revision for growth.
The Fed is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with no major change to the statement. We won’t get the Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting, so the focus will quickly turn to the last Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
With the market not pricing in any rate cut until July 2027, Powell has no reason to influence interest rates expectations at this point
