In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the German PPI and the trade balance for Switzerland and Spain. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks or the market.
In the American session, all eyes will be on the September US NFP report and the US Jobless Claims. The NFP is expected at 50K vs 22K prior with the Unemployment Rate remaining unchanged at 4.3%. The Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 3.7% vs 3.7% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.3% prior.
Needless to say, this is very old news by now but it might still matter for the market given that we don’t get any other NFP report until December 16, which is unfortunately after the December FOMC meeting. The December cut probabilities now stand at just 25% following the update from the BLS that we will get the November NFP only on December 16.
We should also get the most recent Jobless Claims data alongside the NFP report, and those might actually be more important. The Initial Claims are expected at 230K, while the Continuing Claims are seen at 1951K
