In the European session, the only highlights are the flash PMIs for France, Germany, Eurozone and the UK. The ECB has already ended its easing cycle and it’s now just observing how the economy evolves for the rest of the year. The BoE is in a kind of a hard pause as they wait for more data in this last part of the year before considering rate adjustments.
For both the central banks inflation is now the main focus. The PMIs shouldn’t change anything in terms of market pricing unless we get big deviations. In any case, the US PMIs at the moment are more important.
In the American session, we have the US PMIs and Fed Chair Powell. The US PMIs and Jobless Claims this week will be the most important economic reports and they will influence the market pricing given the divergence with the Fed’s projections. The manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.0 vs 53.0 prior, while the services PMI is seen at 53.9 vs 54.5 prior. The market reaction should be pretty straightforward with the US dollar getting bid on good data and coming under renewed pressure on weak figures.
We also have Fed Chair Powell speaking after the PMIs but he’s unlikely to deviate from his press conference stance given that we had just one jobless claims report in the meantime
