In the European session, the main highlight is the Eurozone Flash CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs 1.9% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.3% vs 2.3% prior. As a reminder, the ECB is now on a break as they gather more information throughout the summer before deciding whether another rate cut is needed. Today’s data is unlikely to change much for the central bank.
We will also get a couple of low tier releases like Swiss Retail Sales and the final PMIs, but they won’t change anything in terms of interest rates expectations.
In the American session, we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the US Job Openings data. The ISM is expected at 48.8 vs 48.5 prior. The S&P Global US PMIs came out better than expected, so the expectations are skewed to the upside for the ISM. The focus will likely be on the prices paid component.
The US Job Openings are expected at 7.300M vs 7.391M prior. The Job Openings data is a lagging labour market indicator given that it reports on May’s numbers. I don’t think the market will care about it given that we have the US NFP on Thursday and it reports on June numbers.
Finally we have major central bank speakers at the ECB forum in Sintra today. Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey and BoJ Governor Ueda are scheduled to speak at 13:30 GMT/09:30 ET. Given that they are all data dependent and they all spoke very recently, it’s unlikely that they will say anything new though
