In the European session, we don’t have anything on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Spanish Retail Sales and Italian Business Confidence data. These are not market moving releases and won’t influence interest rate expectations.
In the American session, we have the 2nd estimate of the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The GDP is of course old news (like all GDP reports), so it won’t matter much. On the other hand, the US Jobless Claims data remains one of the most important to follow every week because it’s the most timely indicator on the labour market.
It’s not been such a good market moving release in the past months because the data continues to show resilience and unless we get a spike above the 260K level for Initial Claims, it’s unlikely that the market will care about it. The consensus this week looks for 230K on Initial Claims and 1894K on Continuing Claims.
Finally, watch out for tariff related news after today’s court ruling against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
