In the European session we don’t have much on the agenda given that it’s a holiday in Europe and therefore we should have a quiet session. There’s just the final UK Manufacturing PMI, which is most likely going to be ignored.
In the American session, we have the US Jobless Claims and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. As it’s been the case since April 2 (and as you saw yesterday), the market is not focused on the data because it’s old news. The focus is on trade negotiations and the market continues to maintain positive expectations trading into the first trade deal announcement.
The ISM PMI is expected to be weak given the other regional releases, so it won’t be a surprise. The only data I can see mattering is the US Jobless Claims, but the figure must be at very least above the 260K mark to gather attention. Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims hover
around cycle highs.
The expectations are for Initial Claims to come at 224K vs 222K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1864K vs 1841K prior. Other than that, keep an eye on tariff related news as that what matters on a forward looking basis
