The data was mixed but it didn’t change anything for the BoE anyway. All the data in April is old news and will be mostly ignored by the market. The only thing I can see having an impact is a surge in US Jobless Claims to new cycle highs. Looking ahead, we will also get the German ZEW data but again, it’s unlikely to have any impact.
In the American session, the highlight is the Canadian CPI report. The underlying inflation rate in Canada has been creeping up recently which is making the BoC’s job harder amid slowing growth due to tariffs.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada March CPI
The Canadian CPI
Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.6% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.6%
vs. 1.1% prior. The Trimmed-Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs. 2.9% prior,
while the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 3.0% vs. 2.9% prior.
Inflation has been
moving higher recently after the aggressive BoC easing, and the tariffs are
expected to keep inflation higher while weighing on growth. The market sees 44
bps of easing by year-end with a 61% probability that the central bank will
hold rates unchanged this week
