In the European session, we don’t have much other than the Spanish final CPI which is likely to be ignored in the current context. In the American session, we have the US PPI and the UMich survey.
As you might have noticed with the US CPI yesterday, the data is not the focus of the market at the moment given that it’s old news and it doesn’t reflect anything that happened after April 2. I expect the same with today’s releases with the attention remaining on tariffs negotiations and China. Keep an eye also on long term Treasury yields and the potential response from the Fed or Trump.
12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – US March PPI
The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 3.3% vs. 3.2% prior, while the
M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.0% prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is
expected at 3.6% vs. 3.4% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.3%
vs. -0.1% prior. Again, the data is unlikely to matter much for now as
it’s all backward-looking stuff.
14:00 GMT/10:00 ET – US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is
expected at 54.5 vs. 57.0 prior. Compared to the Conference Board
consumer confidence, which is more biased towards the labour market, the
consumer sentiment survey is more weighted towards consumers’ finances.
In fact, analysts believe that it’s a better predictor of consumer
spending than the consumer confidence report, which is also why the
expectations index in the survey is included in the Leading Economic
Index (LEI).
This is generally more
market-moving at turning points in the cycles or when we have big
deviations from the expected numbers. The sentiment has been dropping
fast in the past months due to the Trump’s trade war
