Westpac on the Australia dollar: “The exchange rate and the big pivot”

January 16, 2025 at 10:59PM
An extended note from Luci Ellis, Chief Economist Westpac Group, Westpac.

In brief:

A depreciating exchange rate sometimes gets interpreted as a ‘vote of no confidence’ in that economy or currency. In fact, it is often a necessary and welcome shock absorber.

future growth in export volumes is mostly going to have to come from somewhere other than the current top four exports.

Australia is going to need to pivot.

The good news is that history shows that it can, and the behaviour of the exchange rate will help it navigate that period of change.

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While the note doesn’t provide a forecast for the AUD it reads to me like WPAC is expecting the currency to be lower for longer.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Westpac on the Australia dollar: “The exchange rate and the big pivot”