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Weekly update on interest rates expectations

August 05, 2024 at 09:39AM
Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 125 bps (96% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

ECB: 75 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

BoE: 53 bps (57% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

BoC: 80 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

RBA: 46 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

RBNZ: 63 bps (64% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

SNB: 48 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 3 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

(This is an extraordinary update as things are moving very quickly and expectations are liable to big swings in both directions depending on the next developments)

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Weekly update on interest rates expectations