July 10, 2024 at 10:57PM
Via Kiwibank, who were ahead of the curve (“sticking to our call for cuts to begin in November”) on this shift from the RBNZ:
importantly, we finally got a noticeable softening in tone. It was a welcome shift given the total collapse in business confidence last week. Enough is enough.
The economy is clearly responding to restrictive monetary policy. Economic activity looks likely to contract over Q2 and unemployment is set to rise further. We expect inflation to fall in line, eventually.
With a softening in language and tone, we, along with all market traders, have grown in confidence that a rate cut should be delivered this year.
Market pricing has moved to price in a full 60bps of cuts by November, with the first 25bp cut for October. We agree with the market, but don’t think the RBNZ will deliver as much as priced. Regardless, it’s good news for most businesses and households.
***
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand yesterday, ICYMI:
RBNZ leaves it cash rate on hold at 5.5%, as expected
NZD/USD drops after the RBNZ statement – hints of a closer rate cut
New Zealand rate pricing implies 25bp rate cut for October vs. 16 before RBNZ statement
Westpac on the RBNZ statement today – “less hawkish” than May statement
BNZ forecast a November rate cut from the RBNZ (previously February)
ANZ on what to watch for timing the first RBNZ interest rate cut. Spoiler, next week’s CPI
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
