The USDCHF moved lower yesterday, but importantly, the decline stalled right into a key technical cluster—the 100 and 200 hour moving averages—and the pair ultimately closed near those levels. That set the stage for today’s price action, where sellers made another push lower, but once again found willing buyers leaning against that same moving average zone. The low for the day held right against those levels, currently coming in at 0.79775 (100-hour MA) and 0.79803 (200-hour MA), reinforcing their importance as a risk-defining floor in the short term.
During the European session, the bounce off that zone was telling. Buyers stepped in with confidence, leaning against those moving averages where risk can be clearly defined and limited. That’s the essence of good technical trading—risk a little to potentially make more than a little. As long as the price holds above this dual moving average support, the buyers maintain control and the bias tilts to the upside.
However, the level is not just important for support—it’s pivotal for bias. If the price were to move below both moving averages and stay below them, it would shift the short-term outlook more bearish. In that scenario, traders would turn their focus to the next downside targets, including an upward sloping trendline near 0.7949 and the 200-day moving average at 0.7943. A break below that confluence would open the door for further downside probing and signal that sellers are starting to take back control.
On the topside, the roadmap is equally well defined. Yesterday’s high reached 0.8017, just shy of the natural resistance at the 0.8000 level. A sustained move above that psychological barrier would give buyers more confidence and have traders targeting last week’s high at 0.80417. That level is not just any resistance—it aligns with a swing high going back to January 15, and the failure to break above it last week increases its importance as a key barometer for bullish continuation.
If buyers can push and hold above that 0.80417 level, it would mark a new high for the year and open the door for a run toward higher targets, including the December 2025 high near 0.8084, followed by the November highs at 0.8101 and 0.8123.
For now, the story is straightforward. Above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, buyers remain in control. Below them, sellers start to take the upper hand. The technical roadmap is clear, the levels are well defined, and the market will continue to take its cues from how price reacts around this key pivot zone.
US stocks are set to open lower with the NASDAQ down -131 points. The S&P index is down -24 points. Durable goods came in weaker than expected at -1.4% versus -1.0%. The prior month revision was also lower at -0.5% versus 0.0% initially reported
