December 16, 2024 at 10:23AM
Fundamental
Overview
The USD continues to
consolidate around the highs except against the commodity currencies where it
extended into new highs. The US inflation data last week was once again a
disappointment although the data that feeds into the Core PCE was overall
benign as forecasters expect a 0.13% M/M increase.
Nonetheless, the Treasury
yields continue to climb and are now back around the post-US election highs.
There’s some understandable uneasiness in the bond market given the hot US data
and the Fed continuing to cut into an accelerating economy.
On the CHF side, the SNB
cut interest rates by 50 bps bringing the policy rate to 0.50% and dropped the
language signalling further cuts in the coming quarters.
This suggests that the
central bank will likely slow the pace of easing which is something that the
market was already expecting with two 25 bps cuts priced in for next year.
SNB’s Chairman Schlegel was
a bit more cautious on the negative rates policy but didn’t exclude it from
their strategy if it’s needed to stop the appreciation in the Swiss Franc.
USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF reversed the fall and rallied back above the major trendline leaving behind a fakeout. The
buyers are back in control and will keep on targeting the 0.9050 level. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to
start targeting new lows.
USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it with a
defined risk below it to position for new highs, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to pile in for a chance to break below the major trendline
and extend into new lows.
USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor counter-trendline defining the current pullback. More
aggressive buyers will likely pile in on a break to target new highs, while the
sellers should lean on it to keep targeting the break below the major
trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we have the US Flash PMIs. Tomorrow, we get the US Retail Sales data.
On Wednesday, we have the FOMC Policy Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE
data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
