The USDCAD pushed higher in early trading after the release of U.S. initial jobless claims, which showed a sharper-than-expected decline. Claims fell to 191K, well below the 220K expected. While the report covers the Thanksgiving week—a period often distorted by seasonal factors—the broader takeaway is that the U.S. labor market continues to reflect a low-hire, low-fire dynamic. That foundation of labor stability helped give the USD a lift, and the USDCAD responded accordingly with a move to the upside.
However, the rally quickly ran into meaningful technical headwinds. As the pair reached new session highs, buyers encountered a confluence of resistance defined by:
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The 100-hour moving average, coming in near 1.39748, and
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The upper boundary of a key swing area, spanning 1.3968 to 1.3975.
Sellers used that zone to lean against the advance, halting the upside momentum. The rejection at resistance pushed the pair back down through the lower edge of the swing area, signaling that buyers were not strong enough—at least for now—to force a clean technical break.
In the video above, I walk through the critical levels in play and break down the bias, the risk parameters, and the upside and downside targets for traders
