The USDCAD is currently locked in a high-stakes technical battle. While the overall bias has shifted back to the upside, the “bulls” are facing a significant ceiling that must be cleared to sustain a long-term rally. After a roller-coaster week driven by U.S. tariff headlines and legal rulings, the price action has settled into a range that dictates the next major move for the pair.
The Line in the Sand: 1.37045
The most critical level on the daily chart right now is the 1.37045 mark. This represents the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range.
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The Struggle: We’ve seen multiple attempts to break and hold above this level over the last few sessions, but the momentum has repeatedly stalled.
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The Goal: A sustained close above this level is required to confirm that the buyers are back in full control. Until that happens, the market remains in a state of “hesitant bullishness.”
Short-Term Support and the 100-Hour MA
For those watching the intraday charts, the 100-hour moving average (currently at 1.36899) is another pivot to watch.
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Bullish Case: As long as the price stays above this blue line, the technical advantage remains with the buyers.
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The Floor: Just below that sits the 200 hour MA at 1.3667 and below that the 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range at 1.36517.
Fundamental Catalysts: Tariffs and Oil
The technicals are being heavily influenced by shifting fundamental narratives. The recent hike in the blanket tariff rate to 15% by the U.S. administration has created a “risk-off” environment, which naturally pushes investors toward the USD. Trump is also not pleased with Canada as they look to go on without the US.
Trading Outlook: The Path Forward
The roadmap is clear:
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Watch the 100-hour MA/200 hour MA. If it holds, we look for another run at the highs for the week and swing area between 1.3714 to 1.3724
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Watch the 200 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement. On the downside, the 200 hour MA at 1.3667 followed by the broken 38.2% of the move down from the January high comes in at 1.36517. Break below and we should see more downside momentum.
Buyers and sellers are battling. The range remains narrow for the day/week. Be on the lookout for a break and a run in the dirction of the break
