The USDCAD rebounded from last week’s low, which stalled on Thursday just above the 2025 low and near the June 17 swing low at 1.3554. The bounce carried the pair up toward the 100-hour moving average (blue line) on Friday at 1.3613 area (see blue line),
Today, the 100 hour MA provided early resistance in the Asian session, but then broke above. Sellers turned to buyers on break with momentum. The 200-hour MA (green line) was broken in the early European session and more buyers piled in. The momentum continued to and through the 50% midpoint of the move down from the June by at 1.3676, but found willing sellers against the low of a swing area between 1.36858 and 1.36923.
Sellers leaned, then the last five or so hours seem the price rotated back toward the 200 hour moving average at 1.36401. That moving average will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. The buyers loved it on the break above, will they love it again on the retest?
On the downside, a break back below the 200 MA at 1.3640 would weaken the near-term bullish bias, and a move back toward the 100 hour moving average at 1.36128
Conversely, hold support the buyers are still in play
