January 24, 2025 at 03:58PM
This week, the buyers in the USDCAD had their shot on a break to the upside. THey missed.
THe sellers had their short on a break to the downside. They missed.
The breaks up-and-down took the price of the pair outline a Red Box that is between 1.42899 and 1.4466. That Red Box was started way back on on December 17th.
Today, the price has dipped back below the 100 and 200 hour MAs which are between the Red Box limits. Those MAs have started to turn more to the downside which is a bearish tilt. Staying below those MAs is more bearish.
On the downside, the price needs to get below the low of the Red Box at 1.42899. That is also home to the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the November 25 low. If broken, there should be more downside momentum.
On the topside, a move back above the 100/200 hour MA, shifts the bias back in favor of the buyers with the high of the Red Box, the key target.
At some point, the market will get outside of the range. The price does not stay in at 177 pip trading range forever. However, what is familiar also gives traders something to lean against for low risk trades. So watch the extremes. Watch the midpoint MAs for clues. And anticipate a break and run at some point.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
