The USDCAD is pushing to a new session high and, in the process, is testing an important resistance zone defined by last Thursday’s high at 1.38689. The pair has now reached 1.3869, putting buyers and sellers at a key technical crossroads.
Looking at the hourly chart, 1.38689 marks the lower boundary of a swing area that extends up to 1.3877, a zone that has repeatedly acted as support or resistance since late March. A break above 1.3877, followed by a sustained move higher, would strengthen the bullish case and give buyers greater control. In that scenario, attention would shift toward the March high near 1.3948 and the 2026 high around 1.3966 as the next major upside targets.
On the other hand, if this swing area once again acts as a ceiling, sellers may gain some traction as buyers take profits and momentum stalls. A rejection from current levels would bring focus back to the key support cluster that held at yesterday’s lows. That support zone is defined by the 100-hour moving average at 1.3822, the 200-hour moving average at 1.38195, and the 200-day moving average at 1.3811.
The 1.3811 to 1.3822 area remains the key downside target. A move below that cluster would tilt the short-term bias back toward the sellers and increase the potential for a deeper correction.
Bottom line: Buyers remain in control while the price trades near the highs, but they still need to break and hold above the 1.38689–1.3877 resistance zone to unlock the next leg higher. Sellers are attempting to defend that ceiling
