Despite a jobs report that means (according to WSJ Timiraos, that the “Fed doesn’t have to say anything on June at next week’s meeting” and “makes a June rate cut less likely”, the USD is moving lower with the USDCAD extending to new lows for the year and the lowest level for the year and going back to October 2024. Reports that Canada PM Carney is meeting Trump may be hopeful of a deal for Canada sooner rather than later (or maybe not?) and may be supportive for the CAD.
Technically, the USDCAD tried to rebound earlier today but ran into stiff resistance near the 100-hour (1.3825) and 200-hour (1.3842) moving averages, which capped the upside. The high price reached 1.3837—just below the 200-hour MA—before sellers took control and pushed the pair back lower.
On the downside, support has reemerged near the April low and red-box consolidation floor at 1.3781. On Wednesday, the pair broke briefly below this level to a new cycle low of 1.3769, but momentum faded and buyers stepped in.
Both those targets have now been breached today with the pair reaching another new low for the day and going back to October 2024 at 1.37638. Not all that convincing, but If the corrective rally can be limited, a new push could be made with more momentum.
Conversely, for those not jumping on the sell the USD, the failed break gives the dip buyers a new low to lean against. If the price moves below, get out.
Overall, however, the sellers are more in control. The price highs today stalled at the MAs – Bearish. A new low was made – Bearish. The price is trading new lows going back to October – Bearish.
So if buying, understand that you are swimming against that tide. Understand the risk
